携程旅行深度研究

Business Model & Unit Economics

How Trip.com makes money: OTA take rates, accommodation vs. transport mix, membership/loyalty, and unit economics

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Moat & Competitive Landscape

Competitive positioning vs. Meituan, Fliggy, Tongcheng, Qunar. Network effects, supplier relationships, brand advantages, and international expansion.

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Management & Capital Allocation

James Liang's founder-led strategy, management track record, M&A history (Skyscanner, MakeMyTrip stake), share buybacks, and corporate governance.

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Financial Quality & Cash Flow

Revenue quality, margin structure, free cash flow conversion, balance sheet strength, and working capital dynamics.

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Risks & Bear Case

Regulatory risk, macro/travel cycle sensitivity, competition from short-video platforms (Douyin), international execution risk, and structural threats.

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Valuation & Margin of Safety

DCF, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF comparisons vs. Booking Holdings/Airbnb/Expedia, and scenario analysis.

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